Jennings signing is a risk, but a good risk
Many saw B-Ball Breakdown’s analysis of why Jennings has been unable to land a contract up to this point and shuddered with relief that Dumars denied interest in the point guard.
Last year according to Synergy Sports, Knight averaged .69 points per possession and a 20.6 turnover percentage as the pick and roll ball handler.
Jennings’ numbers were .84 points per possession and 14.5 turnover percentage.
Suppose yesterday Dumars pulled off a sign and trade of Brandon Knight, Khris Middleton, and Slava Kravtsov for Jrue Holiday.
Well, last year Jennings shot the ball less than Holiday and for a better TS.
His assist to turnover ratio was much better, their steal rate was identical, and Jennings’ Synergy numbers were better on the pick and roll.
Where Holiday has been on the decline in the key efficiency figures the past three years, Jennings has shown signs of progress.
Lin’s a bit more efficient as scorer, Jennings a bit more efficient as a passer, both weak defensively and paid nearly exactly the same.
They could have held on to Jennings at the qualifying offer and had a decent point guard at a bargain price.
One of my personal biggest concerns in discussing a potential Jennings sign and trade was that it would be for either the Charlie Villanueva or Rodney Stuckey expiring contracts.
If it is possible to run into difficulty in resigning Monroe or Drummond due to too many long-term contracts, it seemed like loading up with long term deals for players like Jennings would be the way that it would happen.
But as a Piston, he struggled running an offense, struggled to find a position, struggled with turnovers, struggled at times defensively, and struggled through a horrendous shooting slump last year.
On paper, it’s tough to see Smith or Jennings significantly impacting the Pistons’ odds.
If Dumars was betting on Smith, it was best to go all in with Jennings as well – particularly if the price was right.
While the odds for Jennings is uncertain, the bet for Knight was that this year he would develop capabilities that he has never shown the signs of attaining.