New thinking guides MLB bullpen revolution
Think how much dumber it is that managers leave the starter in to try to get that out, when that starter is not the best option.
Essentially, managers establish set bullpen roles because: 1) They believe players function best when they know exactly when they will be used and 2) They know closers want to build save totals because that translates to larger salaries.
For example, the Yankees gave a four-year, $36 million deal last offseason to Andrew Miller, not knowing whether he would be the setup man or closer.
Not long ago, teams that leaned heavily on analytics shunned investing big on relievers because they saw their ilk as 1) volatile (inconsistent in health or performance from year to year) and 2) fungible (replaceable by scads of untapped power arms, mainly in the minors).
Remember, the Dodgers initially had a trade worked out for Aroldis Chapman that was going to turn one of the game’s best closers, Kenley Jansen, into a setup man.
Consider that even after giving up significant prospects for Craig Kimbrel making championship closer Koji Uehara a setup man the Red Sox dealt a good starter, Wade Miley, for Carson Smith, who finished last year as Seattle’s closer.
This offseason, the Tigers joined the Yankees (Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia before 2009, then Masahiro Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury before 2014) as the only team to give two free agents (Jordan Zimmermann, Justin Upton) nine-figure salaries in the same offseason.
The Tigers already have roughly $175 million invested for next year in 10 players before deciding whether to pick up options on Cameron Maybin ($9 million) and Francisco Rodriguez ($6 million).
In 2018, assuming Upton has not opted out, Detroit has $122 million invested in five players: Victor Martinez (age 39 at the end of 2018), Cabrera (35), Verlander (35), Zimmermann (32) and Upton (31).
The Orioles have engaged in an internal debate this offseason over what is more valuable: To sign a free agent with a qualifying offer that would cost them their first pick, 14th overall, or use the 14th pick to address a thin farm system, particularly by selecting a college pitcher who could come quickly to the majors.